< The 2015 All-Asia Research Team
Claudio Piron, Adarsh Sinha & teamBank of America Merrill LynchFirst-place appearances: 1
Total appearances: 4
Team debut: 2012Although Bank of America Merrill Lynch tumbles from first place back to third, its six-strong troupe retains a loyal fan base thanks in part to what one portfolio manager describes as the analysts’ ability to “develop a highly sophisticated approach to analyzing a mountain of technical data,” as well as “their helpfulness in making it all understandable.” Singapore-based Claudio Piron, 44, and 35-year-old Adarsh Sinha, who works out of Hong Kong, co-captain the squad. Their group is bullish on the U.S. dollar against a short basket of the Singapore dollar, South Korean won and New Taiwan dollar, believing that the central banks in these Asian nations will pursue policies to depreciate their currencies. At the same time, given the economic slowdown in China, the strategists are long on the U.S. dollar versus the renminbi. They forecast that the American currency will strengthen to 6.36 yuan by year-end 2016; it was trading at 6.09 at the end of April. Moreover, both the heft of the dollar and foreign exchange war are likely to persist, they advise, with Asian countries at the forefront of global competitive devaluation efforts. With the greenback poised to continue gaining stride against the euro and the yen, the region’s central banks will be under increasing pressure to devalue their currencies in an effort to bolster their countries’ standing in export markets, the researchers point out. Finally, they recommend that investors take long positions on bonds in India and South Korea, foreseeing policy rate cuts on those horizons.
