In the years following the global financial crisis of 2008, equity markets were awash with liquidity and, correspondingly, ultra-low cash rates. With investors in financial assets sensing that central banks would act as a backstop for economic and market stresses, volatility was kept in check and almost all risky assets moved inexorably higher.
However, the massive fiscal and monetary response to the 2020 Covid pandemic caused a prolonged increase in inflation, prompting central banks to raise interest rates sharply to try to control it. Although global inflation has fallen sharply from the highs seen in 2022, we are now in a very different financial-market environment and are unlikely to see a return to the benign conditions that defined the 12 years leading up to the pandemic. Central banks’ quantitative easing programs have come to an end, while government debt levels have skyrocketed.
Against this changed backdrop, we believe we are seeing a ‘normalization’ of inflation, interest rates and economic growth – not at pre-pandemic levels, but at pre-2008 levels. In other words, we expect inflation to be higher and more enduring than it was in the decade before the pandemic, which may result in structurally higher interest rates relative to recent history but not as restrictive as today. Additionally, economic growth may regain some of its cyclicality, having been affected first by extremely accommodative monetary policy, and then by restrictive monetary policy.
Equity investors must also contend with the threat of disruption from growing geopolitical tensions. For several years, the US and China have each been implementing restrictions against the other on the import and export of key goods and minerals. Elsewhere, the war in Ukraine and escalating conflict in the Middle East have led to spikes in volatility, causing disruption to established trading patterns.
Harnessing Long-Term Growth Trends
In our view, these various aspects of regime change will have significant implications for equity investors. Nevertheless, we believe the future holds plenty of opportunity thanks to several important long-term growth trends that are set to play out over the coming years.
Since 2022, the topic of AI has never been far from the headlines, generating both huge excitement and deep concern. Over the next couple of decades, AI has the scope to reshape the global economy in profound ways across multiple sectors, with the potential to boost growth and productivity.
Meanwhile, as governments and companies seek to facilitate the path towards decarbonization, significant investment will be required over the years ahead, and those businesses that can provide solutions are poised to benefit. Adapting to the changing climate will also require significant investment in resilient infrastructure, food systems, water, energy, detection systems, and public health.
A related development is the broad trend of electrification. Beyond the focus on cleaner energy, the demand for and growth of AI is likely to add significantly to global electricity demand over the coming years, and we are exploring future generating sources, from fission to fossil, the many sources of hydrogen, renewables, batteries and more.
Reimagining Equity Research
Against this complex backdrop, we think clients will need a different approach to equity investment, as those approaches that worked in the past may no longer succeed. We believe successful outcomes will increasingly require the analysis of multiple vantage points to be able to understand the landscape, and to make sense of the opportunities and risks inherent in individual securities. In this context, at Newton we have reimagined our research capabilities, enabling investment team members to exploit an unusually wide and innovative range of inputs in their idea generation. Our multidimensional global research team’s work not only consists of fundamental, in-house analysis, but draws valuable insights from thematic, quantitative, investigative, geopolitical, credit, responsible investment and private-market research.
Furthermore, instead of using the typical industry classification standards for allocating research resources, we have crafted a fundamental equity research framework. This approach reorganizes classifications into five distinct groups known as ‘pods’, in which we categorize companies by characteristics such as maturity, economic sensitivity, and idiosyncratic composition. This approach dismantles the barriers between analysts, facilitating the sharing of ideas, perspectives, and broader collaboration.
Though data is never perfect, we believe a well-functioning investment team, thinking holistically and debating the breadth of research inputs vigorously, can make better-informed decisions.
Depth of Equity Capabilities
To support clients’ specific investment goals, Newton offers a diverse range of active equity strategies with long-term track records, all of which harness our broad and robust multidimensional framework. They can serve as standalone portfolios or as components that form part of a broader investment solution.
We recognize that each client has its own particular objectives, and as we seek to unlock opportunity for them across the equity universe, our starting point is to understand what those objectives are and how, as an expert partner, we can best help meet them.
Important Information
For Institutional Clients Only. Issued by Newton Investment Management North America LLC (“NIMNA” or the “Firm”). NIMNA is a registered investment adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (“BNY Mellon”). The Firm was established in 2021 and is part of the group of affiliated companies that individually or collectively provide investment advisory services under the brand “Newton” or “Newton Investment Management”. Newton currently includes NIMNA and Newton Investment Management Ltd. (“NIM”) and Newton Investment Management Japan Limited (“NIMJ”).
In Canada, NIMNA is availing itself of the International Adviser Exemption (IAE) in the following Provinces: Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, and Ontario, including the foreign commodity trading advisor exemption in Ontario. The IAE is in compliance with National Instrument 31-103, Registration Requirements, Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations.
Material in this publication is for general information only. The opinions expressed in this document are those of Newton and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations for any purchase or sale of any specific security or commodity. Certain information contained herein is based on outside sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Any reference to a specific security, country or sector should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell investments in those securities, countries or sectors.
This material is provided for general information only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation. You should consult with your advisor to determine whether any particular investment strategy is appropriate. Statements are current as of the date of the material only. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Past results are not indicative of future performance and are no guarantee that losses will not occur in the future.