Toshihiko Okino UBS
second team Daisuke Fukushima Nomura
third team Yoji Otani Credit Suisse
Toshihiko Okino takes top honors for a seventh straight year; the UBS analyst is also ranked third in REITs. “He knows what’s happening in the sector better than anyone else,” insists one buy-side fan. Okino upgraded Mitsui Fudosan Co. to buy in November 2008, at ¥1,191, on valuation. In September, after the stock had risen 30.4 percent, to ¥1,553, and was ahead of the sector by 25.9 points, he downgraded it to neutral, citing increasing uncertainty over the economy after the newly elected Democratic Party of Japan took power. The stock slipped 3.4 percent since the downgrade, through February.
Repeating in second place is Nomura’s Daisuke Fukushima, who “has his own view, and he sticks to it,” in the words of one investor. Fukushima’s preference for residential properties over office buildings led to one of his best calls, a buy on Goldcrest Co. in January 2009, at ¥1,945, on strong demand for housing. He downgraded the stock to neutral in November, on valuation, after Goldcrest’s share price had shot up 41.9 percent, to ¥2,760. Through February the stock slid 8.3 percent.
Yoji Otani of Credit Suisse, who returns in the No. 3 spot, provides “a unique perspective on demography and population shifts,” according to one client. Otani upgraded Sekisui House to outperform in March 2009, at ¥617, on the belief that the stock was selling at a discount because of “too much pessimism” in the market. In June, after the stock had surged 59.2 percent, to ¥982, and had bested the broad market by 28 points, he downgraded it to neutral, on valuation. Since then it dropped 11.6 percent, through February.
