Jeffrey deGraaf ISI
second team Mary Ann Bartels BofA Merrill Lynch
third team Carter Braxton Worth Oppenheimer
Capturing the top spot for a fifth consecutive year is Jeffrey deGraaf, who, according to one portfolio manager, “has been right since the start of the current bear market.” The 41-year-old ISI Group analyst, who had been bearish on U.S. equities since December 2007, reversed his position on March 12, 2009 — just three days after the market hit bottom — and advised investors that valuation levels and other indicators signalled that it was time to get back into the market. The S&P 500 index plunged 48.9 percent during the time deGraaf was bearish; it surged 35.9 percent since his buy recommendation, through August. DeGraaf is “a brilliant strategist,” cheers one satisfied ally.
Repeating in second place is Mary Ann Bartels of BofA Merrill, who provides “a great overview of sentiment and breadth measures,” says one buy-side backer. In March, as the market was showing signs of renewed vigor, Bartels informed clients that the rally was sustainable and would be led by cyclicals. She was right: Morgan Stanley’s cyclical index has since catapulted a whopping 150.6 percent, as of August 31.
Carter Braxton Worth advances from runner-up to third. The Oppenheimer & Co. researcher makes “intuitive and logical calls without flash or fanfare,” as one fund manager puts it. One example: Worth called the low point on Fairfield, Connecticut–based General Electric Co. in March, at $6.66, with a valuation-driven buy recommendation. The stock subsequently lit up gains of 108.7 percent, through August.
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