François Trahan ISI
second team Michael Goldstein Empirical
third team Tobias Levkovich Citi
On top for a second straight year is François Trahan of ISI Group. The 40-year-old strategist told clients in January to dump defensive stocks such as telecommunications and health care companies and load up on consumer discretionary stocks. “We believed the economy would eventually recover because of the magnitude of the government’s policy response and that investors would shift their preference away from defensive sectors toward cyclical ones,” says Trahan, who is also No. 3 in Quantitative Research. Through August the health care and telecommunications sectors trailed the broad market by 4.1 and 16.6 percentage points, respectively, and consumer discretionary stocks outpaced the market by 7.8 points. “Anyone who listened to his analysis would be sitting pretty,” applauds one supporter.
Michael Goldstein repeats in second place; the Empirical Research Partners strategist is also No. 1 in Quantitative Research. “I’ve read his work for a decade, and he’s unbelievable — thoughtful, insightful and brilliant,” proclaims one money manager. In January, Goldstein told investors that “free cash flow production” would give information technology stocks an extra boost. The sector outperformed the broad market by 20.4 percentage points, through August 31.
Citi’s Tobias Levkovich, who rises from runner-up to third, “grinds through the numbers and then presents them in a way that makes his conclusions easy to understand,” says one buy-side enthusiast. Analyzing earnings growth and leading indicators on volatility, among other criteria, Levkovich turned bullish on U.S. stocks last November and predicted that the S&P 500 index, then at 752.44, would top 1,000 this year. The index first topped the thousand-point mark in early August and closed the month at 1,020.62. Levkovich remains bullish.
Click here to see the All-America Research Team rankings.
