Markets fluctuated this past week as investors continue to recalibrate expectations for global monetary policy and demand. A sharp rally for the Japanese yen — a signal that investors doubt the Bank of Japan’s ability to combat deflation — was followed by a modest rebound for global equities and oil on Friday.
Monday, April 11: China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases March consumer price inflation data. While consensus forecasts for the cost of goods at the cash register to climb by 2.5 percent year-over-year versus an expansion of 2.3 percent in February, spreads along the Chinese yield curve indicate that investors have become concerned that inflation may rise further in coming months.
Tuesday, April 12: John Williams, Patrick Harper and Jeffrey Lacker, presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks in San Francisco, Philadelphia and Richmond respectively, will separately give speeches. With U.S. futures markets for interest rates implying a consensus expectation for two rate hikes in 2016, any indication that macro concerns may cause a shift in policy is likely to impact sentiment.
Wednesday, April 13: JPMorgan Chase is traditionally the first major U.S. bank to report each earnings season and is again the case for the first-quarter 2016 round of announcements. Some analysts have raised concerns over exposure to the embattled energy sector, prompting the bank to raise reserves to support loans in the industry group by 60 percent to more than $1.3 billion. Last week in his annual letter to shareholders, CEO Jamie Dimon raised concerns over potential bond market volatility and reiterated commitment to trading as a core franchise for the bank.
Thursday, April 14: During a parliamentary hearing last month, Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg criticized Bank of England governor Mark Carney, arguing that the central banker had no business publicly commenting on the upcoming referendum on the U.K.’s future membership in the European Union. Regardless of any concerns among members over the risk of Brexit, the BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting for April is not expected to result in significant policy shifts as inflationary pressure remains absent.
Friday, April 15: The biannual joint World Bank, International Monetary Fund Development Committee meeting in Washington will be an opportunity for senior policymakers at both organizations to meet with member country representatives as they assess ongoing programs’ effectiveness. As with the most recent committee meeting held in Lima last October, the refugee crisis in the Middle East and Europe and ensuing economic fallout will likely feature heavily in discussions.
Sunday, April 17: The first weekend of the annual Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival winds down. Since the first event was held in 1999, the two-weekend campout in the desert of the Coachella Valley outside of Indio, California has evolved into a full-on celebration of rock music, Instagram posing, marketing to Millennials and the emergence of so-called festival fashion. Headliners at this year’s event include electronic music artist Calvin Harris and the reuniting of both 2000s electroband LCD Soundsystem and of 80s hard rock mainstay Guns N’ Roses, with original members Axl Rose, Slash and Duff McKagan. Last year’s Coachella festival broke the record as the world’s highest-grossing music festival, raking in $84,264,264 in ticket sales from 198,000 passes.
