< The 2016 All-Europe Research Team
Antonio Guglielmi & team
Mediobanca
First-Place Appearances: 1
Total Appearances: 7
Team Debut: 2009
Mediobanca earns its first top finish on this roster, rising from third place to send Equita S.I.M. down to second after three years at No. 1. From his base in London, Antonio Guglielmi oversees a 15-analyst crew that works out of Milan and monitors 100 Italian stocks. “Understanding government is the key to understanding Italian stocks — and they write the most about politics and macroeconomic policy,” attests one supporter. “They also maintain a large team doing work on banking and financial research, which is exceptionally strong.” Among the group’s favorite names is, indeed, an outfit with significant activities in financial services sectors: Poste Italiane of Rome. The government-owned company’s offerings extend beyond communications, logistics and postal services to encompass deposit savings accounts, foreign currency exchange, insurance and other investment solutions. It manages some €470 billion ($527 billion) in assets, while boasting a valuable distribution network. In fact, Guglielmi reports, “it owns more points of sale than the top five supermarket chains in Italy combined.” Management’s growth strategy, he adds, “is all about turning around the mail business, increasing the customer base and cross-selling. We expect these actions to translate into €3 billion of accumulated cash flow” over the next three years. What’s more, Poste Italiane is poised to distribute as much as €500 million in dividends in 2018, the researchers advise, a projected increase of nearly 18 percent from the payout last year. These catalysts should combine to propel strong performance for the stock, which was trading at €7.04 in mid-January; they foresee a rise to €8.50. Guglielmi and his colleagues also recommend that investors prefer U.K.-headquartered Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, the successor company to legendary Italian carmaker Fiat. FCA continues to benefit from having significant exposure in the North American and expanding developed European markets, which account for nearly 60 percent of its auto sales, they note, and little dependence on the softening economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. Its introduction of sporty new models “should support financials going forward,” Guglielmi adds, as low interest rates are likely to do as well. Finally, the automaker’s shares trade at an attractive forward price-to-earnings valuation of approximately six, excluding the Ferrari division (which was spun off early last month), he points out. His squad’s target price of €10.90 for the shares indicates a 63.9 percent upside to their closing value in mid-January. Guglielmi, 44, has built an 18-year career in London. He signed on with Mediobanca in January 2010 to serve as both head of research and leader of the firm’s European banking team. Previously, he reported on French and Italian banks for Bank of America Merrill Lynch and tracked the latter sector at Salomon Brothers (now part of Citi). The analyst earned an MBA at the Quinlan School of Business at Loyola University in Chicago and a doctorate in finance from Italy’s Sapienza – Università di Roma.
