< The 2015 Latin America Research Team
Iker Cabiedes, Diego Celedón & teamJ.P. MorganFirst-place appearances: 4
Total appearances: 10
Team debut: 1993J.P. Morgan captures the No. 2 position on this lineup, rising from third place. This year Santiago-based Diego Celedón shares leadership responsibilities with Iker Cabiedes, who is stationed in New York. The 33-year-old researcher also co-captains, with Benjamin Ramsey, a group that rises from third place to first for its coverage of North Andean Countries; he and Vladimir Werning head a squad that merits a runner-up position on the Argentina roster. Cabiedes, a newcomer to this ranking, has been a regional economist for the firm since moving to New York in 2013 and serves as chief economist for Argentina, Chile and Peru. He joined J.P. Morgan in May 2007, spending six years in Mexico City as part of the local economics research team. The analyst earned a bachelor of economics degree at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México and a master’s degree in financial economics from the Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey. Their three-strong Chile crew does “a very good job with corporate access and conferences,” remarks one client, who also values the analysts’ accuracy in macroeconomic positioning and in anticipating the central bank’s monetary policy moves. For the remainder of 2015, they forecast that the Banco Central de Chile will hold its benchmark rate at 3 percent, “as the economy undergoes a soft recovery amid a gradual disinflation trend,” says Cabiedes, 32. “We expect the central bank to gradually normalize its monetary policy stance in 2016” and allow the reference rate to rise to 3.75 percent by year end. Among the group’s favorite Chilean names are a leading financial services firm and an electric power company, both of which are based in Santiago. Banco de Chile earns an overweight rating from the trio because even in the challenging domestic economy characterized by slow economic growth and moderate inflation, the bank’s stock is “well positioned to post superior profitability,” Celedón says. Moreover, despite “healthy underlying profit dynamics,” he adds, the bank’s recent underperformance has left its American depositary receipts attractively valued. Over the 12 months through mid-July, the ADRs tumbled 13.5 percent, to $66.64, lagging Latin America’s banks overall by 11.4 percentage points. During the same period, Chile’s shares were down 5 percent and the regional broad market shaved 5.9 percent. The researchers peg Banco de Chile at $80. Their preferred utility is Empresa Nacional de Electricidad, better known as Endesa Chile. “The company combines attractive earnings growth potential, regional diversification and a compelling dividend yield,” Celedón explains. He and his colleagues believe that a price of $53 is justified for its ADRs, which were trading at $42.49 in mid-July.
