Capturing first place for a second straight year is the Bank of America Merrill Lynch group directed by London-based David Hauner, who again also pilots the No. 1 squad in Fixed-Income Strategy. “I find the team very focused on analyzing the countries under their coverage from a credit perspective,” observes one fund manager. Working from offices in Cape Town, London and Moscow, the ten economists advise that the biggest regional issue is the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which they expect to linger and eventually deescalate while providing another reason to be cautious on Russia in the long term. Already, that Eurasian nation’s fundamentals are projected to suffer from weak demographics and a lack of reforms, and now “the crisis will likely further reduce foreign investment, which is important for innovation and the only way Russia can grow despite its aging society,” says Hauner, 37. He and his teammates also anticipate that the standoff will result in a geopolitical shift, with Russia pivoting to the East, especially toward China, and Europe aiming to reduce its dependence on the country’s energy exports. The analysts recommend buying emerging markets that are undergoing major corrections, pointing out that although credit fundamentals have weakened to some extent, they are still strong in most countries. “Debt remains lower than it was ten years ago, and fiscal deficits and inflation are generally lower,” Hauner explains. “Moreover, currencies are freely floating today, making it easier for economies to adjust to shocks to capital inflows.” His squad’s research, another fan remarks, “is thought-provoking.” |
David Hauner EMEA Cape Town America Merrill Lynch Moscow
