For a second year running, David Hauner guides his Bank of America Merrill Lynch troupe to first place on this roster. The ten strategists “are opportunistic in providing sound research on the more frontier markets without leading to weaker coverage in the more liquid markets that they cover,” observes one backer. Hauner, who also pilots the No. 1 team in Economics, says that one of the main global issues affecting credit markets in emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa is whether the European Central Bank will embark upon a quantitative easing program similar to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s. If so, explains the 37-year-old leader, “the biggest beneficiaries will be markets where carry is relatively high and where central banks will be able to lower rates if capital flows strengthen,” particularly Hungary and Turkey. In addition, he says, euro-denominated bonds of such Central and Eastern European countries as Croatia and Hungary should also benefit because the fall in yields in the periphery attracts more interest in those markets. The analysts, who are based in Cape Town, London and Moscow, are long-term bulls on the CEE region because it’s one of the few emerging-markets regions where fundamentals are improving. “In hard-currency debt,” Hauner adds, “we continue to like Croatia, Hungary, Serbia and Slovenia — small countries, but they are among the few places that provide some value to long-term investors.” |
David Hauner Cape Town Africa America Merrill Lynch Moscow
