< The 2014 All-Europe Research Team
Topping this lineup for a third consecutive year is Deutsche Bank’s team co-captained by Gilles Moec, 43, and Mark Wall, 41. The London-based quintet wins kudos from one investor for its “excellent analysis of the roots of the euro crisis.” The economists characterize the euro zone’s turnaround as “slow and uneven but broadly as expected so far,” says Wall. “There is optimism the recovery can continue through 2014, helped by accelerating global demand, inventory rebuilding, slower fiscal austerity in general and slower private deleveraging.” In addition, the pace of growth will “remain quite diverse across the region,” he explains. The team forecasts that the U.K. — as well as peripheral euro zone countries of Greece, Italy and Spain — will enjoy the fastest accelerations between this year and next year. In the area of politics, “a constant source of concern in recent years,” Wall points out, European parliamentary elections in May and a ruling by Germany’s Constitutional Court on the legality of the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions program (allowing the ECB to buy bonds directly from euro zone member countries) are “likely to be nonsystemic as long as a modest recovery is playing out.” He says the court ruling is likely to be “ambiguous, which in the context of economic growth probably won’t be damaging to market sentiment.” The elections are “more likely to create waves at a national level rather than in Brussels,” Wall advises. See also Gilles Moec and Mark Wall’s profiles in the 2013 All-Europe Fixed-Income Research Team and the 2013 All-Europe Research Team. |
